Natural Disaster: The Neighbour on Your Doorstep

Chinese Taipei, 22 September 2008 - There was perhaps a time when news of a natural disaster could evoke a sense of "them-not-us" relief. But as the world gets smaller, disaster seems more frequent. And, certainly, it seems closer. "They" are our neighbours. And, sometimes, "they" are actually "us."

Few could shrug off the real-life experiences, explored in the TFEP (Task Force on Emergency Preparedness) Workshop, which opened in Chinese Taipei today.

"Consider the natural disasters occurring in 2008 alone," offers Chinese Taipei's Minister of the National Science Council, Lou-Chuang Lee. "The Myanmar cyclone, the Iowa flood, the Sichuan earthquake..."

It was, in fact, the earthquake in neighbouring China which inspired the hosting of the workshop by Chinese Taipei, and which has drawn together industry experts from across the APEC region. Although Workshop Chairs are emphatic that there is "no one-size fits all solution," the workshop allows member economies to share their own experiences and lessons learned. Presentations include best practices from the Pisco Earthquake (2007); the New Orleans flood (2005); and the Asian Tsunami (2004).

The Sichuan earthquake, the cause of more than 88,000 deaths has raised evermore frequently occurring questions: are disasters actually occurring more frequently or do they just receive more attention? Is there any way to avoid them and - most importantly - what can we do?

Douglas Bausch, Senior Physical Scientist at the Denver Federal Centre, considers hurricanes as an example, and does not hesitate as he concedes that, yes, severity of hurricanes is indeed increasing. "This is not to say that there have not been great strides in mitigation. It could be much worse. But we tend to shoot ourselves in the foot. We counter the progress we have made when we continue to build in hazardous environments. We increase our exposure, our susceptibility to disaster."

Apart from the growing demands of societies accustomed to convenience, mitigating disaster is often expensive. And perhaps, there is an element of incredulity. USA. John C. Pine, Director of Disaster Science and Management at Louisiana State University recalls:

"An article came out in Scientific American in 2001, saying that New Orleans would be swamped... As an academic, it took Katrina to show me what swamping could mean. It was a category three storm. It filled up the bowl of New Orleans - and we knew it would, three years in advance. There was up to 16 feet of water at any point."

Ninety percent of the population was displaced. But low-income and African American communities were the most adversely affected. It is another phenomenon experienced (predictably) across borders.

Huga Saucedo Acosta, a Civil Engineer, at the Colegio de Ingenieros del Estado de Colima describes the impact of the Mexico City earthquake on the practice of engineering. While only one percent of luxury homes were damaged, almost 60 percent of homes described as "economic" were affected.

There may be no one answer when it comes to natural disasters but one sentiment is shared across the region in which 70 percent of the world's natural disasters occur: there is no way to know for whom the bell tolls next.

For APEC, regional economic prosperity is inextricably correlated to robust trade. This, of course, assumes that each economy should be in a position to engage in trade - and not overwhelmed by the mere prospect of survival.

One might say that natural disasters are here to stay. At the very least, they are an ever present possibility and a potential threat to regional economic stability. To the extent that intra-regional trade is considered a sustainable form of economic stability; no less is collaboration in emergency preparedness and response.

Almost ten years after Chinese Taipei's own Chi-Chi earthquake (1999), the frequency of flood and debris flow disasters has been observed to have increased. The World Bank has declared the island one "most exposed to multiple hazards in the world"; and rainfall quantity has tripled in the last forty years. One can understand why Chinese Taipei has been so compelled by recent events in Sichuan.

The "Workshop on Large-Scale Disaster Recovery in APEC" (September 22 - 28) will include visits to both the Chi-Chi area and the site of the May 12 earthquake in the Sichuan Province of China, as APEC economies consider the most relevant issues affecting regional preparedness and recovery.