CLIK here to see the future: advances in disaster preparedness
Tsunamis, earthquakes, landslides, floods and drought... . It's not just a force of imagination: The APEC region is disproportionately affected by natural disasters.
According to the UNISDR i, more lives have been lost to geological and hydrometeorological disasters in the APEC region than in any other part of the world - including Africa. In fact, say experts ii at the Universities of Sheffield and Michigan, of all people affected by disasters between 1975 and 2004; 43 percent live in Southern Asia and 41 percent in Eastern Asia.
The economic costs reach into the billions and the scope and longevity of social and environmental effects are immeasurable. These effects are magnified when applied to the poor, who have neither the resources to recover swiftly nor the means to anticipate and prepare for future climatic anomalies.
"A new theory or hypothesis dealing with how to improve the predictions of climate appears in reputed international journals almost every fortnight or month," says Dr. AK Sahai iii, a senior research scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.
While methods are consistently being improved and refined, such resources have not been readily available to operational forecasting centres, researchers and others with limited resources, often remotely located or simply having no prediction structures in place.
A new tool from the APEC Climate Centre (APCC), Korea promises to change all that.
With economies such as Singapore, Australia and New Zealand having already established sophisticated tracking and prediction systems, it has long been possible to cross-reference information and to project future climate patterns. But only now has this information been made available to users throughout the entire world.
The Climate Information Tool Kit (CLIK) provides a user-friendly interface that allows data to be retrieved and used to create custom predictions for any location on earth.
Apart from warning populations of large-scale disasters, the system enables people and businesses to access forecast information of the climate anomalies affecting agriculture and other seasonally-determined activities. According to Dr. Sahai, a recent visitor to the APCC, seasonal forecasting has an especially great impact on "those whose economic activities are bound to local or global climate variations in some way or the other." Phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the recently discovered Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Modoki events have a profound impact on the drought or rainfall in Indonesia, Australia and as far as South America.
Dr. Karumuri Ashok, who is leading climate prediction efforts at the APCC explains that the availability of advance climate information has many potential applications:
"If it is known with some certainty that extreme drought conditions may occur, governments may advise farmers not to invest large sums of money in seeds, fertilisers and irrigation. For example if the rainfall is expected to be insufficient for water-intensive rice cultivation in regions such as the Philippines, farmers may opt to choose a crop which demands less water."
Dr. Saji N. Hameed, of APCC points to the case of the Indonesian forest fires in 2006: "As you may well know, these fires are started by humans every year for agricultural management, but they go out of control during extremely dry seasons such as the one experienced in 2006. With advanced warning, local governments might legislate bans or take other steps to keep fires under control."
Beyond its domestic advantages, by helping to ensure a level of preparedness and climate management, information-sharing systems contribute to the macroeconomic stability of the region.
For example, adds Dr. Saji, "the sharp spike in global rice prices is largely related to the sad events surrounding the deadly Myanmar Cyclone Nargis in 2008." Similarly, he says, "the rapid rise of global wheat prices can be related to the droughts of 2006, 2007 and 2008 in Australia, all of them coinciding with Indian Ocean Dipole events during the same years."
In terms of coping with climate, it used to be that the rich got wiser and the poor just got poorer. This sort of innovation has the potential to reverse that trend and contribute to a playing field that is at least slightly more even. CLIK iv has already been awarded the Fukoka Ruby Award, Grand Prix for its technical merit and potential contribution to society.
While researchers at the APCC readily concede that there is still room for improvement, climate forecasts can be used effectively, provided that uncertainties are taken into account. Indeed, the benefits already outweigh the remaining challenges. "This is a field that is receiving considerable attention," says Dr. Ashok.
Venturing even further, the APCC is now finding ways to extend forecast limits beyond a single season. The centre is currently experimenting with a 6-month climate prediction system. If successful, these extended forecasting products will serve as a foundation for even more efficient disaster preparation.