What are the Energy Security Implications of Recent Declines in Both APEC and Global Spare Petroleum Refining Capacity?

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the challenges facing the petroleum refining sector within APEC. It examines historical trends, current dynamics, and future projections surrounding petroleum refinery capacity, consumption patterns, and supply security.  A key observation is the narrowing gap between petroleum refinery capacity and petroleum product consumption globally, signaling a potential shortfall in the investment needed for petroleum refinery capacity expansion.  Short-term projections within this decade from various sources indicate increased global petroleum product consumption driven by economic growth and industrial expansion across various regions.  However, long-term scenarios of the consumption diverge considerably, presenting complex challenges in decision-making on the refinery capacity investments.  Additionally, this report outlines diverse risk profiles across APEC sub-regions, ranging from economies heavily reliant on imports of petroleum products to those with robust domestic production capabilities. Towards the end, the report provides conclusions and recommendations for APEC economies to consider enhancing the security of petroleum product supply in light of the uncertainties.